DB
Dare Bioscience, Inc. (DARE)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Reported FY 2024 results and unveiled a dual‑path commercialization strategy: target U.S. availability of its proprietary Sildenafil Cream via a 503B outsourcing facility in Q4 2025, with revenue and cash flow expected to begin in Q4 2025 .
- Cash and equivalents at year-end were $15.7M; 2024 G&A fell 24% to $9.2M and R&D fell 34% to $14.2M; FY 2024 net loss narrowed to $4.1M, aided by $20.38M in royalty rights sale proceeds .
- Ovaprene Phase 3: ~125 women (half target completers) expected to reach ~6 months of use by end Q2 2025 for DSMB safety review; NICHD site recruitment paused due to federal funding uncertainty, but five new sites are enrolling under a Gates grant .
- Catalysts: 503B launch partnership disclosure (2Q 2025), Sildenafil Cream Phase 3 protocol/SAP submission (2Q 2025), Ovaprene DSMB review (mid‑2025), and ongoing non‑dilutive funding inflows (ARPA‑H up to $10M, foundation up to ~$10.7M) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Sildenafil Cream acceleration path: management will use FDA‑regulated 503B compounding to make the formulation available in Q4 2025 while continuing toward FDA approval; expected to start recording revenue and cash flow in Q4 2025 . Quote: “We are taking action to make our proprietary Sildenafil Cream formulation available via prescription this year as a compounded drug under Section 503B… We expect to start recording revenue and cash flow in the 4th quarter of this year.”
- Cost discipline and capital solutions: FY 2024 G&A down 24% and R&D down 34%; $22M royalty monetization closed, driving FY net loss down to ~$4.05M .
- Non‑dilutive funding momentum: selected by ARPA‑H to receive $10M over two years for DARE‑HPV; foundation grant up to ~$10.7M for non‑hormonal contraception/Ovaprene site expansion .
What Went Wrong
- Ovaprene enrollment headwinds: NICHD CCTN site recruitment paused due to federal funding uncertainty; timeline visibility reduced, though DSMB timing for safety review remains intact as already‑enrolled participants progress .
- Sildenafil Phase 3 timing slipped: prior guidance to submit the Phase 3 protocol/SAP in Q1 2025 shifted to Q2 2025 pending additional FDA recommendations .
- Limited operating revenue profile: FY 2024 total revenue was $9,784 (royalties only); quarterly revenue base remains de minimis until future approvals or 503B commercialization .
Financial Results
Note: Year-end release provided annual, not standalone Q4 figures; we show quarterly Q2–Q3 trends and full-year comparisons.
Quarterly trends (selected P&L items)
Full-year comparison
KPIs and operating metrics
- XACIATO commercialization: continued U.S. prescription availability via Organon with positive early adoption signals (qualitative) .
- Ovaprene Phase 3 sites/participants: 15 active NICHD sites following participants; 5 additional sites initiated in 2025 funded by the Gates grant; ~125 women to complete ~6 months by end Q2 2025 for DSMB review .
- Non‑dilutive funding: ARPA‑H up to $10M (24 months); foundation grant up to ~$10.7M (24 months) .
No segment reporting; revenue currently limited to royalties/transactions .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We are taking action to make our proprietary Sildenafil Cream formulation available via prescription this year as a compounded drug under Section 503B… We expect to start recording revenue and cash flow in the 4th quarter of this year.” – CEO Sabrina Johnson .
- On using real‑world evidence alongside Phase 3: “There is an opportunity to… utilize real world evidence… to support the registration process,” while designing Phase 3 with incentives like open‑label extension for enrollees .
- On Ovaprene headwind: “Executive orders and other actions… have negatively impacted the Phase 3 study… recruitment at the CCTN sites has been paused… [but] DSMB timing… will not be affected” .
- On cost discipline and capital solutions: G&A down 24%, R&D down 34%; $22M royalty monetization; up to $20.7M new non‑dilutive awards in 2024 .
Q&A Highlights
- 503B partner and promotion: Partner announcement targeted in Q2 2025; 503B products are cash‑pay (HSA/FSA possible), promotion claims constrained until FDA indication; focus on provider education and evidence, leveraging telehealth for awareness .
- Trial enrollment vs commercialization: Phase 3 designed with open‑label extension and pricing strategy to preserve enrollment incentives despite 503B availability .
- Market position: Compounded product is not a generic; intent is trusted, consistent, GMP‑made formulation with extensive clinical work specific to this cream .
- Ovaprene DSMB: Safety‑focused board; interim at ~6 months primarily for safety; contraceptive effectiveness typically improves over 12 months, informing disclosure approach .
Estimates Context
- We queried S&P Global/Capital IQ consensus for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 EPS and revenue; no estimates were available for DARE at the time of this analysis (Primary EPS Consensus Mean and Revenue Consensus Mean returned no data).*
- Implication: Street benchmarks are unavailable; post‑print adjustments likely focus on timeline updates (Sildenafil Phase 3 delay to Q2 2025 submission) and the 503B monetization path (Q4 2025 revenue start).*
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- 503B commercialization is a new, near‑term monetization path: targeted Q4 2025 availability and revenue start for Sildenafil Cream with ≤$1M enablement spend, while preserving the FDA path and potential to leverage real‑world evidence .
- Regulatory timing shifted: Sildenafil Phase 3 protocol/SAP moved to Q2 2025; aligns with additional FDA recommendations, adding modest timeline risk .
- Ovaprene DSMB mid‑2025 remains on track, but NICHD site recruitment pause is a tangible operational headwind; new grant‑funded sites partially offset .
- Cost discipline and non‑dilutive funding help extend runway: lower OpEx in 2024 and multiple grants plus royalty monetization reduced FY loss substantially .
- XACIATO provides commercial proof with upside‑sharing via XOMA structure; not a primary cash generator near term but showcases partnering leverage .
- Trading setup: Key 2025 catalysts (503B partnership details in Q2 2025, Phase 3 protocol submission, Ovaprene DSMB) are likely to drive narrative inflections; absence of Street estimates limits “beat/miss” framing but increases focus on milestone execution .
- Risk checklist: Regulatory feedback pacing, Ovaprene enrollment dynamics, execution of 503B launch and partner performance, and capital market access for Phase 3 spend (each Sildenafil Phase 3 est. ~$15M direct cost) .
Appendix: Other Relevant Q4 2024 Press Releases
- Dec 16, 2024: Detailed Sildenafil Cream Phase 3 plan reflecting FDA feedback; initial guidance to submit protocol/SAP in Q1 2025 and target mid‑2025 study start .
- Dec 10, 2024: Additional Phase 2b subgroup efficacy analysis publication; no material safety/efficacy detractors identified .
- Dec 4, 2024: $2.5M DARE‑LARC1 grant installment; broader drug‑delivery platform potential .
- Oct 23, 2024: ARPA‑H Sprint for Women’s Health award (up to $10M over ~24 months) for DARE‑HPV .